A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
