Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
